# Voynich Research Lab

Auteur: DustinLabs

Bijgewerkt: 2026-11-03T01:29:25+00:00

## Onderzoeksvraag

Welke structurele tekstpatronen overleven eenvoudige nulmodellen en een alternatieve transcriptie? Er wordt geen vertaling of nieuwe ontdekking geclaimd.

## Methode

EVA-ASCII-eenheden; onzeker gelezen tokens uitgesloten. Bevroren splitsing op fysiek blad: recto, verso en uitvouwpanelen samen. Beschrijvende analyses uitsluitend op de trainingsset. Validatie wordt éénmalig volgens het vastgelegde protocol gebruikt; de eindtoetsset blijft gesloten. Paginaniveau- en permutatiecontroles; Benjamini–Yekutieli over de complete zesdelige toetsfamilie, inclusief nog niet uitgevoerde toetsen als p=1.

Dataset: 5215 regels; trainingsset: 135 foliozijden; validatie: 44; gesloten eindtoets: 46.

## Resultaten

### Currier A/B: woordlengte

Status: completed; kwalificatie: Onvoldoende bewijs; p=0.08; q=0.196.

```json
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    "eligible_sections": [
      "herbal"
    ],
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        "mean_word_length": 5.0625,
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      },
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        "mean_word_length": 5.0602409638554215,
        "section": "herbal"
      },
      {
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        "section": "herbal"
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        "mean_word_length": 4.678571428571429,
        "section": "herbal"
      },
      {
        "currier": "A",
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        "mean_word_length": 4.456140350877193,
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      {
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        "mean_word_length": 5.15,
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      {
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        "mean_word_length": 5.133333333333334,
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        "mean_word_length": 5.20353982300885,
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      {
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      {
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        "mean_word_length": 5.247191011235955,
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    ],
    "training_gap_A_minus_B": -0.06378188287056297,
    "validation_folios": 27,
    "validation_gap_A_minus_B": -0.2513371644165119
  },
  "effect": -0.2513371644165119,
  "control": {
    "description": "Currierlabels willekeurig verwisseld tussen folio's binnen dezelfde sectie.",
    "max": 0.35650773245890927,
    "mean": 0.1126224025830219,
    "min": 7.138037254783569e-05,
    "minimum_attainable_p": 0.005,
    "p_value_formula": "(1 + count(null >= observed)) / (B + 1)",
    "samples": 199,
    "standard_deviation": 0.08599754241990473,
    "tail": "two-sided absolute statistic"
  },
  "robustness": {
    "alternative_effect": -0.34790531655379814,
    "alternative_validation_folios": 37,
    "limitation": "Foliogematchte richtingcontrole, geen locusgematchte of onafhankelijke replicatie. Transcripties kunnen gemeenschappelijke bronnen hebben.",
    "method": "same predeclared statistic; 19 seeded control shuffles for directional sensitivity, no replication p-value",
    "same_direction": true,
    "status": "evaluated",
    "validation_folio_coverage": 1.0
  },
  "counterevidence": [
    "Currierlabels zijn historisch mede op tekstpatronen gebaseerd. Een verschil is dus geen onafhankelijke ontdekking; secties zonder overlap vallen af.",
    "De gerapporteerde q-waarde corrigeert over de volledige vaste toetsfamilie met Benjamini-Yekutieli. Folio's zijn geen gegarandeerd onafhankelijke schrijfeenheden."
  ]
}
```

### Galgtekens aan het regelbegin

Status: completed; kwalificatie: Interessant patroon; p=0.005; q=0.014700000000000001.

```json
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    ],
    "training_folios": 125,
    "training_statistic": 0.1470488387892405,
    "validation_folios": 37,
    "validation_statistic": 0.18138826480190456
  },
  "effect": 0.18174164601580045,
  "control": {
    "description": "Dezelfde regels met willekeurige woordvolgorde.",
    "max": 0.043046563128366536,
    "mean": -0.0003533812138958847,
    "min": -0.04644305101849827,
    "minimum_attainable_p": 0.005,
    "p_value_formula": "(1 + count(null >= observed)) / (B + 1)",
    "samples": 199,
    "standard_deviation": 0.016744211369612697,
    "tail": "one-sided greater"
  },
  "robustness": {
    "alternative_effect": 0.1697043737354733,
    "alternative_validation_folios": 37,
    "limitation": "Foliogematchte richtingcontrole, geen locusgematchte of onafhankelijke replicatie. Transcripties kunnen gemeenschappelijke bronnen hebben.",
    "method": "same predeclared statistic; 19 seeded control shuffles for directional sensitivity, no replication p-value",
    "same_direction": true,
    "status": "evaluated",
    "validation_folio_coverage": 1.0
  },
  "counterevidence": [
    "EVA p/f/k/t is een operationele tekenklasse, geen paleografische identificatie. Regelgrenzen en transcriptiekeuzen beïnvloeden de uitkomst.",
    "De gerapporteerde q-waarde corrigeert over de volledige vaste toetsfamilie met Benjamini-Yekutieli. Folio's zijn geen gegarandeerd onafhankelijke schrijfeenheden."
  ]
}
```

### Woordlengten in een regel

Status: completed; kwalificatie: Interessant patroon; p=0.005; q=0.014700000000000001.

```json
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  "effect": 0.10122833558503053,
  "control": {
    "description": "Willekeurige woordvolgorde binnen iedere oorspronkelijke regel.",
    "max": -1.7777996125234565,
    "mean": -1.8278221120814457,
    "min": -1.8784927859803315,
    "minimum_attainable_p": 0.005,
    "p_value_formula": "(1 + count(null >= observed)) / (B + 1)",
    "samples": 199,
    "standard_deviation": 0.018593753640466424,
    "tail": "one-sided greater"
  },
  "robustness": {
    "alternative_effect": 0.1278233476539592,
    "alternative_validation_folios": 37,
    "limitation": "Foliogematchte richtingcontrole, geen locusgematchte of onafhankelijke replicatie. Transcripties kunnen gemeenschappelijke bronnen hebben.",
    "method": "same predeclared statistic; 19 seeded control shuffles for directional sensitivity, no replication p-value",
    "same_direction": true,
    "status": "evaluated",
    "validation_folio_coverage": 1.0
  },
  "counterevidence": [
    "Lokale woordlengtestructuur kan samengaan met herhalingen en regelopmaak. Dit is geen grammaticale analyse.",
    "De gerapporteerde q-waarde corrigeert over de volledige vaste toetsfamilie met Benjamini-Yekutieli. Folio's zijn geen gegarandeerd onafhankelijke schrijfeenheden."
  ]
}
```

### q en woordgrenzen

Status: completed; kwalificatie: Interessant patroon; p=0.005; q=0.014700000000000001.

```json
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    ],
    "training_folios": 125,
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    "validation_statistic": 0.993739481610546
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  "effect": 0.8200870737541536,
  "control": {
    "description": "Cyclisch geroteerde woorden met identieke tekens en woordlengte.",
    "max": 0.2507431526447689,
    "mean": 0.17365240785639244,
    "min": 0.11010846878719843,
    "minimum_attainable_p": 0.005,
    "p_value_formula": "(1 + count(null >= observed)) / (B + 1)",
    "samples": 199,
    "standard_deviation": 0.02506559412546329,
    "tail": "one-sided greater"
  },
  "robustness": {
    "alternative_effect": 0.8056428542258678,
    "alternative_validation_folios": 37,
    "limitation": "Foliogematchte richtingcontrole, geen locusgematchte of onafhankelijke replicatie. Transcripties kunnen gemeenschappelijke bronnen hebben.",
    "method": "same predeclared statistic; 19 seeded control shuffles for directional sensitivity, no replication p-value",
    "same_direction": true,
    "status": "evaluated",
    "validation_folio_coverage": 1.0
  },
  "counterevidence": [
    "De nul is een segmentatiecontrole; q is geen bewezen taalkundig teken. Rotatie behoudt cyclische, niet lineaire overgangen.",
    "De gerapporteerde q-waarde corrigeert over de volledige vaste toetsfamilie met Benjamini-Yekutieli. Folio's zijn geen gegarandeerd onafhankelijke schrijfeenheden."
  ]
}
```

### Voorspelbaarheid van tekenovergangen

Status: completed; kwalificatie: Interessant patroon; p=0.005; q=0.014700000000000001.

```json
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    "per_folio": [
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        "improvement_bits": 1.560359178113572,
        "markov_bits": 2.298140800598048,
        "unigram_bits": 3.85849997871162
      },
      {
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      {
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    ],
    "training_folios": 125,
    "unigram_bits_per_character": 3.8557330937652847,
    "unseen_characters": 1,
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  },
  "effect": 1.4572987360952832,
  "control": {
    "description": "Unigram met hetzelfde trainingsalfabet en dezelfde smoothing; sign-flips zijn een symmetrische nul voor de paginaverschillen.",
    "max": 0.536458582340271,
    "mean": -0.011336245353552144,
    "min": -0.6421735394783356,
    "minimum_attainable_p": 0.005,
    "p_value_formula": "(1 + count(null >= observed)) / (B + 1)",
    "samples": 199,
    "standard_deviation": 0.23528783898022657,
    "tail": "one-sided greater"
  },
  "robustness": {
    "alternative_effect": 1.4667740171554011,
    "alternative_validation_folios": 37,
    "limitation": "Foliogematchte richtingcontrole, geen locusgematchte of onafhankelijke replicatie. Transcripties kunnen gemeenschappelijke bronnen hebben.",
    "method": "same predeclared statistic; 19 seeded control shuffles for directional sensitivity, no replication p-value",
    "same_direction": true,
    "status": "evaluated",
    "validation_folio_coverage": 1.0
  },
  "counterevidence": [
    "Sign-flip vereist symmetrie onder de nul. Folio's kunnen gerelateerd zijn. Een winst bewijst tekenafhankelijkheid, geen natuurlijke taal of ontcijfering.",
    "De gerapporteerde q-waarde corrigeert over de volledige vaste toetsfamilie met Benjamini-Yekutieli. Folio's zijn geen gegarandeerd onafhankelijke schrijfeenheden."
  ]
}
```

### Gelijkenis van buurwoorden

Status: completed; kwalificatie: Interessant patroon; p=0.005; q=0.014700000000000001.

```json
{
  "metrics": {
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        "statistic": 0.2894568938686586
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        "statistic": 0.2833908442604095
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      {
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        "statistic": 0.19674823633156965
      },
      {
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        "statistic": 0.2109623015873016
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        "statistic": 0.20996825396825397
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      {
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        "statistic": 0.20052910052910053
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        "statistic": 0.22923809523809524
      },
      {
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        "statistic": 0.27245817245817244
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      {
        "folio": "f21r",
        "statistic": 0.270419774335437
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      {
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        "statistic": 0.2578621031746032
      },
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        "statistic": 0.22696617108381814
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        "statistic": 0.2533895502645503
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        "statistic": 0.2572112753147236
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        "statistic": 0.2709259259259259
      },
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    "training_folios": 125,
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    "validation_statistic": 0.24293257364749268
  },
  "effect": 0.011601173363366385,
  "control": {
    "description": "Dezelfde woorden in een willekeurige regelinterne volgorde.",
    "max": 0.23912136776561735,
    "mean": 0.2313314002841263,
    "min": 0.22079184240763644,
    "minimum_attainable_p": 0.005,
    "p_value_formula": "(1 + count(null >= observed)) / (B + 1)",
    "samples": 199,
    "standard_deviation": 0.003509383694237833,
    "tail": "one-sided greater"
  },
  "robustness": {
    "alternative_effect": 0.011096426802081755,
    "alternative_validation_folios": 37,
    "limitation": "Foliogematchte richtingcontrole, geen locusgematchte of onafhankelijke replicatie. Transcripties kunnen gemeenschappelijke bronnen hebben.",
    "method": "same predeclared statistic; 19 seeded control shuffles for directional sensitivity, no replication p-value",
    "same_direction": true,
    "status": "evaluated",
    "validation_folio_coverage": 1.0
  },
  "counterevidence": [
    "Korte regels bieden weinig permutaties. Herhaling, woordlengte en tekeninventaris kunnen het effect verklaren; geen betekenisclaim.",
    "De gerapporteerde q-waarde corrigeert over de volledige vaste toetsfamilie met Benjamini-Yekutieli. Folio's zijn geen gegarandeerd onafhankelijke schrijfeenheden."
  ]
}
```

## Beperkingen en tegenargumenten

Bekende positie- en groepspatronen bewijzen geen taal, betekenis of versleuteling. EVA-letters zijn transcriptie-eenheden, geen bewezen schrifttekens. Alternatieve transcripties delen voorgeschiedenis; dit is een gevoeligheidscontrole. Quires zijn niet apart gehouden, waardoor resterende afhankelijkheid mogelijk is. Currier A/B kan samenhangen met hand en sectie. Een klein nulmodelonderzoek kan complexe generatoren, historische talen of cryptografische families niet uitsluiten. Corpusomvang en publicatierechten verschillen per bron.

## Onafhankelijke verificatie

Verkrijg de bronbestanden via de vermelde URLs, controleer SHA256 in het bronregister, gebruik dezelfde versie en het opgeslagen protocol, voer de CLI uit met research.toml en vergelijk de export. Herhaal daarna met een vooraf geregistreerde nieuwe vraag, quire-splitsing, onafhankelijke onderzoeker en ongeziene eindtoets. De gesloten eindtoets is in deze versie bewust niet via de CLI vrij te geven.

## Bronnen

- https://collections.library.yale.edu/catalog/2002046
- https://collections.library.yale.edu/manifests/2002046
- https://www.voynich.nu/data/

Volledige provenance, hashes, rechten en onderzoeksverwijzingen staan in het bronregister van het dashboard.